IN SHORT: Nigeria recorded a merchandise trade surplus of N7.55 trillion ($4.1 billion) in Q1 2026, a 340.88% surge from N1.71 trillion in Q4 2025 and 46% higher than N5.17 trillion in Q1 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report released on June 9. Total exports reached N21.17 trillion, up 11.6% quarter on quarter. Total imports fell sharply to N13.62 trillion, down 21% from Q4 2025. The driving forces were higher crude oil exports and a dramatic collapse in petroleum product imports, attributable directly to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s expanded domestic production.
Nigeria’s trade balance has swung dramatically into surplus as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s ramp-up eliminates the country’s petroleum product import bill, cutting one of the largest single-line items in Nigeria’s import ledger and producing a Q1 2026 merchandise trade surplus of N7.55 trillion, the strongest quarterly trade position Nigeria has recorded in recent years and a structural validation of the refinery’s transformative impact on the national balance of payments. The NBS data, published June 9, show a country whose external trade arithmetic has been fundamentally altered by a single private-sector infrastructure investment whose advocates predicted exactly this outcome and whose critics spent a decade doubting it would ever be realised.
- Total exports reached N21.17 trillion in Q1 2026, representing 60.85% of total trade. This was 2.77% higher than Q1 2025 and 11.63% above Q4 2025. Crude oil remained Nigeria’s dominant export commodity at N11.2 trillion, representing 52.92% of total exports. The non-crude oil export component of N9.97 trillion is the more encouraging signal: it represents 47.08% of total exports, suggesting that Nigeria’s export base, while still crude-heavy, is diversifying at the margin.
- Total imports collapsed to N13.62 trillion, down 18.17% year on year and down 21.05% from Q4 2025. The headline driver of the import decline is the crash in petroleum product imports. Other petroleum product imports, primarily refined petrol and diesel, fell 85.05% from N5 trillion in Q1 2025 to N748 billion in Q1 2026. This single line item reduction of approximately N4.25 trillion is the Dangote effect quantified: domestic refining has displaced that spending from imports to local production.
- Agricultural goods imports fell 20.09% to N827.72 billion, reflecting both naira stability improving domestic supply economics and deliberate import substitution policies. Raw material goods imports fell 12.63%. The broad-based import decline across product categories suggests the reduction is partly structural, not solely attributable to petroleum, as domestic production in multiple sectors displaces imported goods.
- Export partners in Q1 2026 were led by India, France, the Netherlands, Spain and the United States. India’s position as Nigeria’s largest single export destination reflects the flow of Nigerian crude oil into South Asian refining capacity. The European partners reflect both crude oil flows and the Dangote Refinery’s petroleum product exports to European markets that S&P Global confirmed in April when it named Dangote the world’s largest jet fuel exporter.
- Import partners were led by China, the United States, India, Germany and the UAE. China’s continued dominance of Nigerian imports reflects its position across manufactured goods, machinery, electronics and textiles. The 21% quarter-on-quarter import decline occurred despite continued Chinese import flows, indicating the petroleum product withdrawal was the primary driver of the reduction.
- The year-on-year comparison is also strong: N7.55 trillion surplus against N5.17 trillion in Q1 2025, a 46% improvement that preceded even the refinery’s most productive operational period. This suggests the trade balance improvement has two sources: the refinery’s growing contribution in 2026, and the underlying improvement in Nigeria’s export performance and currency-driven import compression that began in 2023 with the FX reforms.
The N7.55 trillion trade surplus in a single quarter, if sustained across 2026, would represent a fundamental shift in Nigeria’s external financial position. For decades, Nigeria’s chronic trade deficits in non-oil goods were partially offset by petroleum export revenues, leaving the current account perennially under pressure. The refinery’s elimination of the petroleum product import bill converts that chronic deficit driver into a surplus contributor, simultaneously improving the current account, reducing foreign exchange demand for imports and contributing to naira stability. The broader economic impact compounds: lower petrol prices, reduced logistics costs, improved competitiveness for manufacturing businesses that depend on fuel inputs.
The Bigger Picture: The Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s Q1 contribution to Nigeria’s trade balance is the financial evidence for what CEO Devakumar Edwin has been arguing for months: that a country producing more refined petroleum than it consumes does not need to spend foreign exchange importing petrol. Nigeria’s N4.25 trillion reduction in petroleum product imports in a single quarter, annualised, represents savings of approximately N17 trillion or roughly $9 billion per year that previously flowed out of the country to pay for refined fuel. That capital now stays in Nigeria. It finances the trade surplus, supports the naira, reduces the central bank’s foreign exchange intervention burden and improves the fiscal position. No single infrastructure project in Africa’s history has delivered this magnitude of macroeconomic impact in this short a timeframe.
Source: Nairametrics, June 8 2026 / The Punch, June 9 2026
