IN SHORT: Kenya’s real GDP grew by 4.6% in 2025, a marginal cooling from 4.7% in 2024, supported by positive growth across all sectors, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 2026 Economic Survey released this week. Construction rebounded sharply from a 0.7% contraction to grow 6.8%. Mining and quarrying surged 14.9%. Over 90% of Kenya’s electricity came from renewable sources, and electricity demand for e-mobility surged 152.5%. KNBS forecasts 4.9% growth in 2026 but explicitly warned that Sub-Saharan Africa remains vulnerable to shocks from the Iran war.
Kenya’s 2026 Economic Survey delivers a picture of broad-based resilience: every sector of the economy grew in 2025, renewable energy now powers more than 90% of the national grid, and the construction boom that the country’s infrastructure programme is generating is pulling mining, logistics and financial services upward simultaneously.
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics released the 2026 Economic Survey and 2026 Facts and Figures on May 5, the most comprehensive annual assessment of the country’s economic performance and structural development.
- Real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2025, marginally below 2024’s 4.7%, reflects an economy that maintained momentum through a year disrupted by the Finance Bill protests of 2024, drought conditions in parts of the country, and rising global uncertainty. The slight deceleration is more reflective of statistical base effects and the hangover from 2024’s political disruption than a structural growth slowdown. Construction grew 6.8%, reversing the previous year’s 0.7% contraction, as government infrastructure investment and private real estate development both accelerated. Mining and quarrying grew 14.9%, recovering from a 7.8% contraction in 2024, driven largely by increased production of construction-related minerals including limestone and aggregates.
- The standout performer across the economy was Accommodation and Food Services, which grew 15.6%, reflecting Kenya’s tourism recovery. International visitor arrivals exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2025, with Nairobi’s positioning as Africa’s premier conference and diplomatic hub generating significant business travel demand alongside leisure tourism. Public Administration grew 8.3%, Financial and Insurance services 6.5%, Information and Communication 4.8%, and Transportation and Storage 3.7%.
- The energy numbers are the most structurally significant in the survey. Kenya generated 15,067 GWh of electricity in 2025, of which over 90% came from renewable sources including geothermal, hydropower, wind and solar. That figure places Kenya among the top ten countries globally by renewable electricity share and reflects decades of investment in the Olkaria geothermal fields, the Lake Turkana Wind Power facility and expanding solar installations. Electricity demand for e-mobility surged 152.5% year on year, reflecting the rapid uptake of electric vehicles including the 100,000-plus EVs now registered in the country and the explosive growth in electric motorcycle deployments by operators including Spiro and ARC Ride.
- Infrastructure metrics confirm the physical transformation of the country. The national paved road network has expanded to 25,412 kilometres, with KSh 168.7 billion invested in road development and maintenance in the most recent fiscal cycle. The Standard Gauge Railway achieved record revenues. The healthcare transition to the Social Health Authority has enrolled over 29 million Kenyans. Total education expenditure is projected at KSh 702.1 billion for 2025/26.
- The macroeconomic environment that enabled this growth was supportive. Overall inflation eased to an average of 4.1% in 2025, down from peaks above 9% in 2022-2023. The Kenyan shilling averaged KSh 129.3 against the US dollar throughout 2025, providing import cost stability. The Central Bank of Kenya lowered the base lending rate to 9.00%, supporting private sector credit growth that accelerated to 8.1% in March 2026.
- KNBS forecast GDP growth of 4.9% in 2026, a modest improvement from 4.6% that would be supported by continued infrastructure spending, services sector expansion, and growing digital economy activity. The forecast carries an explicit caveat: the statistics office warned that Sub-Saharan Africa remains “highly vulnerable to shocks caused by the US-Israeli war against Iran,” citing Kenya’s heavy dependence on energy imports and the potential for sustained fuel price increases to compress growth through transport, food and manufacturing cost channels.
- April 2026 inflation data showing an uptick to 5.6%, the first monthly reading above 5% since the CBK’s easing cycle began, confirmed that the Hormuz shock is already registering in consumer prices. The CBK’s decision to pause its 10-cut rate reduction cycle in April reflects exactly the risk scenario the KNBS warning identifies.
The survey noted that 83% of Kenya’s workforce remains in informal employment, a structural constraint that limits the translation of GDP growth into broad-based income improvement and remains the economy’s most persistent development challenge.
The Bigger Picture: Kenya’s 4.6% growth in 2025 is not a spectacular number. It is a solid number delivered by an economy that grew through protest, drought and rising global uncertainty, diversified enough across agriculture, construction, services and digital technology to absorb shocks that would have been more damaging to a less structurally varied economy. The 90% renewable electricity share and the 152.5% e-mobility electricity demand surge are the indicators that matter most for the decade ahead. They tell you that Kenya’s energy transition is not aspirational. It is operational. That is a genuine competitive advantage in a continent where energy reliability is the most persistent constraint on industrial development and investor confidence.
Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 2026 Economic Survey / Africa Business Insight / HapaKenya, May 2026
