BHP, the world’s largest miner with a market capitalisation of approximately $246bn, is sending Pretoria a message it cannot afford to ignore. The company that once walked away from South Africa’s assets, that refused to include Kumba Iron Ore and Anglo American Platinum in its $39bn Anglo American bid, that spun off its South African operations into South32 a decade ago, is now about to be run by a South African. Brandon Craig, born in KwaZulu-Natal, takes the CEO chair on July 1. The symbolism is significant. The substance of the warning that accompanies it is more so.
South Africa is squandering its position in the global critical minerals race at the exact moment when that race matters most. Mineral exploration spending in the country fell for a seventh consecutive year in 2025, dropping a further 5.3% to $44m ($738m rand at 2015 constant prices). That figure sits against a global nonferrous exploration budget of $12.4bn. South Africa’s share of global exploration spend has collapsed from 5% in 1995 to below 1% today, an 85% contraction over three decades. The country that once led the world in mining investment is now, as the Fraser Institute’s annual rankings confirm, among the ten least attractive mining destinations on earth.
The timing could not be worse. Platinum hit a record $2,850 per ounce in January 2026 before settling near $2,000. Gold averaged $2,300 per ounce through 2025 and peaked above $3,284. South Africa holds ore reserves the government itself values at more than $2.2tn (R40 trillion). Ramaphosa called mining a "sunrise industry" in his February 2026 State of the Nation Address. None of this has translated into exploration investment because the structural problems have not been fixed.
Three problems, no clock
Paul Dunne, whose views carry weight across the platinum group metals industry, put the industry’s position plainly: "Patience in the mining industry is very thin." He identified the proposed Mineral Resources Development Bill as the central obstacle. The draft Bill, gazetted for public comment in May 2025, is not, in its current form, a workable document for the industry. Among its most contested provisions: a reversion to ministerial consent requirements for rights transfers that goes beyond the current MPRDA regime, expanded empowerment obligations applied from the prospecting stage rather than the mining stage, and vague definitions that the Minerals Council warns could deter foreign direct investment across the board.
Bowmans describes the proposed ministerial consent provisions as "micro-management of mining companies," noting that the need for changes of this magnitude, which upend 20 years of mineral regulation, is not explained in the Bill. Economic Research Southern Africa is more blunt, identifying an underdeveloped junior mining and exploration industry as creating "effective collapse of the sector’s project pipeline."
Infrastructure compounds the legislative problem. Transnet’s rail and port inefficiencies continue to constrain exports. Kumba Iron Ore cut output guidance last year due directly to Transnet performance. Energy costs, particularly for platinum group metal smelting, have risen above inflation for 15 consecutive years. The mining sector has pledged approximately 3,500MW of renewable energy capacity since 2022, but only 1,820MW had been installed as of mid-2025. Eskom’s Transmission Development Programme, a $6.2bn (R112.5bn) investment programme, will not complete until 2034.
The capital is going next door
The consequence is that exploration capital is being redirected to Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, both of which are capturing growing shares of continental exploration budgets. Zambia holds copper. The DRC holds cobalt, copper, and the largest hydropower potential on earth. Both are imperfect jurisdictions with their own governance challenges. But both are actively competing for the capital South Africa is turning away through regulatory inertia.
South Africa holds 37% of global manganese reserves and is one of the world’s largest producers of platinum group metals, chrome, gold, iron ore, and coal. Mining contributes approximately 6% directly to GDP, but its broader economic impact including supplier linkages and household income effects totals around $38bn (R695bn) in GDP effect annually, supporting roughly 3.5 million people. Primary mineral exports of between $42bn and $44bn (R773bn to R800bn+) represent 45% to 52% of the country’s total merchandise export earnings. This is not a sector the South African economy can afford to let atrophy. The Ramaphosa government appears to understand this. The Industrial Development Corporation committed more than $16m (R300m) to the Frontier Rare Earths project in the Northern Cape in early 2026. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has set a target to restore South Africa’s global exploration market share to 5%. But without a finalised, investment-grade legislative framework, targets are statements, not signals.
What BHP’s position actually means
BHP did not build its copper dominance by accident. The company has spent a decade consciously reducing its South African exposure and concentrating capital in jurisdictions where the regulatory framework, infrastructure, and time to production are predictable. Copper now generates more than 50% of BHP earnings for the first time in the company’s history. The company’s exploration programme in Africa is focused on Botswana and Tanzania, not South Africa.
Brandon Craig takes over in this context. A KwaZulu-Natal native who attended the University of KwaZulu-Natal, Craig understands South African mining from the inside. He also now sits at the head of a $246bn company whose capital allocation decisions reflect a global view that South Africa has structural problems other countries do not. His appointment is not a guarantee of fresh BHP investment into South Africa. It is, however, a window. The question for the Ramaphosa government is whether it uses the next 12 months to give Craig something to invest in.
Bigger Picture: South Africa is sitting on $2.2 trillion in ore reserves and losing the exploration race to countries with a fraction of its geological endowment. Exploration spend has fallen 85% in 30 years to $44m in 2025, a rounding error against the global $12.4bn budget. The MPRDA Bill in its current form is deterring the very capital it claims to attract. The infrastructure that gets minerals to port is still failing. A South African is about to run the world’s largest miner. This is the most pointed possible signal to Pretoria that the gap between potential and performance is visible from the top of the global industry, and that capital has been patient long enough.
Source: Daily Investor / Mining.com / Business Tech Africa
