IN SHORT: A Standard Bank-backed macroeconomic study by Pretoria-based Conningarth Economists has assessed Mozambique’s proposed Rovuma LNG project, an 18-million-tonne-per-year development for northern Mozambique, and found that if fully realised, Mozambique could position itself as the world’s fourth-largest LNG supplier after the US, Qatar and Australia. The project aims not only to export LNG globally but to catalyse domestic and regional gas use across Southern Africa. South Africa’s Eskom is simultaneously pursuing a 3,000MW gas-to-power programme at Richards Bay that explicitly needs LNG supply, creating a direct and proximate regional demand signal for Mozambican gas.
Mozambique’s vast offshore gas reserves, estimated among the largest discovered anywhere in the world in the 21st century, could transform the country into a global LNG powerhouse comparable to Australia and Qatar if the Rovuma development proceeds at scale, according to a Standard Bank-commissioned study that frames Mozambique’s gas not as a narrow export play but as the anchor of an entirely new Southern African gas economy. The study, prepared by Conningarth Economists, was published on June 9 and arrives at a moment when South Africa’s accelerating gas-to-power programme is creating the most tangible regional demand for Mozambican gas since exploration began in the Rovuma Basin a decade ago.
- The proposed Rovuma LNG project targets 18 million tonnes per annum of production capacity in northern Mozambique, commercialising a portion of the country’s confirmed offshore gas reserves. At that production scale, Mozambique would become one of the largest LNG exporters globally: the study projects it could rank fourth in the world after the United States, Qatar and Australia. The global comparison is significant because it frames Mozambique’s gas resources in terms of strategic geopolitical importance, not just development economics.
- The project’s vision extends beyond LNG exports to include domestic and regional gas utilisation. Gas that is not shipped as LNG would be available for domestic power generation, industrial applications and pipeline supply to neighbouring countries. This dual-track model, exporting LNG to global buyers while supplying regional gas to Southern African economies, is the structure that maximises Mozambique’s value capture from its reserves rather than simply monetising them as a raw export commodity.
- South Africa’s accelerating gas-to-power plans create the most immediate regional demand signal. Eskom signed a heads of agreement with Zululand Energy Terminal at Richards Bay on June 5 to anchor LNG imports for a 3,000MW gas-to-power plant over a 25-year lifecycle. The Richards Bay terminal, a joint venture between Vopak, Reatile and Transnet Pipelines, is designed for an initial capacity of 2 million tonnes per annum scaling to 5 million tonnes, and operates on open-access terms meaning multiple buyers can use it. Mozambican LNG would be a natural candidate for the supply contracts that Richards Bay will require once operational.
- South Africa’s domestic gas sector faces severe supply challenges that make imported LNG increasingly attractive. Legal challenges have stalled or delayed offshore exploration progress on the confirmed Brulpadda and Luiperd deepwater gas discoveries. Regulatory uncertainty, environmental approval disputes and legislative constraints have slowed the development pathway for domestic gas. Industry stakeholders have described a policy vacuum that is creating a risk of a domestic gas cliff where existing supply tapers before new sources are established. Imported LNG from Mozambique fills that gap.
- The Mozambique LNG development has faced its own formidable obstacles. TotalEnergies declared force majeure on the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project in April 2021 following insurgent attacks in Cabo Delgado province. Eni and ExxonMobil’s Coral Sul floating LNG facility has been producing since 2022 but represents a smaller scale. The broader development of northern Mozambique’s gas resources has been conditional on security stabilisation in Cabo Delgado, where a sustained SADC-coordinated military operation has been ongoing. The Standard Bank study’s framing of Mozambique as a potential fourth-largest global LNG supplier is a view of the upside scenario if security is restored and development proceeds.
- The parallel between Mozambique’s position and Australia’s LNG development in the early 2000s is instructive. Australia was a minor LNG exporter in 2005 and became the world’s largest by 2018 through a sustained private-sector investment cycle that turned confirmed reserves into operational production capacity. Mozambique has the reserves. The question is whether the security, regulatory and financing conditions can be assembled to execute the development at comparable speed.
The Mozambique LNG story connects directly to the broader Southern African energy transformation. South Africa is pivoting from coal toward a mix of renewables and gas. Mozambique has the gas. The infrastructure to connect them, LNG terminals at Richards Bay and potentially other South African ports, is now being built. The financing institutions, led by Standard Bank which commissioned the Conningarth study, are positioning for the deal flow that follows. The Rovuma project, TotalEnergies’ force majeure notwithstanding, remains one of the most commercially significant energy developments in Africa’s history if the enabling conditions can be assembled.
The Bigger Picture: Mozambique sits atop gas reserves of global significance at a moment when the world urgently needs LNG supply to replace Russian gas in Europe and Gulf supply disrupted by the Hormuz conflict. Australia built a $200 billion LNG industry in a generation. Norway built a $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund on oil and gas. Mozambique has the reserves to do something comparable in the African context. The Standard Bank study’s projection of a potential fourth-largest global LNG supplier is not fantasy: it is a quantification of what responsible development of confirmed geology could deliver. Whether Mozambique captures that potential depends on security, governance, financing and deal execution over the next decade. The study is the starting point for that conversation, not the endpoint.
Source: Business Day, June 9 2026
