IN SHORT: Aliko Dangote pledged on April 23 at the Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi to build a 650,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Tanga, Tanzania, identical to his Lagos plant, conditional on backing from the governments of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Kenya’s Ruto and Uganda’s Museveni both publicly endorsed the proposal. Crude would be sourced from DRC, South Sudan, Kenya and Uganda. Dangote said construction could be completed within four to five years.
Africa’s richest man has offered to replicate his 650,000 barrel-per-day Lagos refinery in East Africa, pledging to build and lead a regional oil processing facility at Tanzania’s Tanga port that would end the region’s near-total dependence on Middle East refined fuel imports, a vulnerability exposed with full force by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early 2026.
Dangote made the commitment at the Africa Finance Corporation’s Africa We Build Summit in Nairobi on April 23, speaking directly to Kenya’s President William Ruto and Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni. "I can give commitment to the two presidents that were here: if they will support the refinery, we’ll build the identical one that we have in Nigeria, 650,000 barrels per day," Dangote said. "There is nothing that can stop it."
- The proposed facility would be located at Tanga, Tanzania’s northeastern port city and the terminus of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which will carry Ugandan crude 1,443 kilometres to the Tanzanian coast. A pipeline connecting Mombasa to Tanga would integrate the Kenyan coast into the supply and distribution network. Crude feedstock would come from DRC, South Sudan, Uganda and Kenya’s emerging offshore discoveries.
- Ruto framed the refinery as a strategic regional asset rather than a national project: "We’re going to have a joint refinery in Tanga to benefit all of us because that refinery is going to take on board the oil from DRC, the oil from Kenya, the oil from South Sudan, and the oil from Uganda." Museveni, who has banned the unprocessed export of Ugandan minerals, described the continued export of raw materials as economically self-defeating: "You take your material, then you’ll bring it back? We have educated people. We have big financial institutions."
- East Africa is almost entirely dependent on refined petroleum imports, the majority sourced from the Middle East and routed through Mombasa. The Hormuz blockade in early 2026 exposed this dependency in the most direct way possible, triggering sharp fuel price increases across Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and the wider region. A regional refinery changes that equation structurally.
- The Dangote Refinery in Lagos, which commissioned in 2024 and processes 650,000 barrels per day with expansion to 1.4 million barrels per day underway, is already exporting jet fuel to European markets at 50,000 barrels per day. The technical proof of concept for a Dangote-led East African refinery is therefore not theoretical. It is operational in Nigeria.
- Dangote outlined a broader $40 billion expansion strategy across petrochemicals, fertiliser and manufacturing by 2030, of which the East African refinery would be one component. He called for improved intra-African mobility, noting that visa restrictions continue to hinder trade and investment: "With a European passport, you can move faster in Africa than being an African."
- Kenya separately is exploring an equity stake in Uganda’s planned refinery in Hoima, estimated at $4 billion, underscoring a growing shift toward cross-border energy infrastructure as shared regional assets rather than competing national projects.
The proposal remains conditional on government alignment and political follow-through, the same constraints that have delayed multiple previous East African energy initiatives. But Dangote’s track record in delivering the Lagos plant, backed by Afreximbank’s $2.5 billion underwriting of his refinery debt, gives the announcement a credibility that previous proposals lacked.
The Bigger Picture: East Africa’s refinery gap is not a new problem. It has been discussed at summit level for two decades. What is new is the combination of factors that make 2026 different: the Hormuz shock has made the dependency visceral rather than theoretical, EACOP gives Tanzania a crude supply route that did not previously exist, and Dangote has a working refinery that proves the model. The question is whether the governments of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania can agree on equity structure, regulatory framework, and offtake terms fast enough to keep Dangote’s commitment alive. African summits are excellent at announcing ambition. The refinery will be judged on what happens in the next 12 months of negotiation.
Source: Bloomberg / Semafor / Vanguard / Capital FM
