IN SHORT: Nigeria earned $31.54 billion from crude oil in 2025, down 14.4% despite pumping more barrels. The real story is beneath the headline: gas exports hit $10.51 billion, refined petroleum exports reached $6.13 billion, and the Dangote Refinery cut fuel imports by $4 billion. Nigeria’s hydrocarbon trade structure is changing.
Nigeria earned $31.54 billion from crude oil exports in 2025, a 14.4 percent fall from $36.85 billion in 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report. The decline happened despite higher production: crude output rose from 408.68 million barrels in 2024 to 530.41 million barrels in 2025. The gap between more barrels and less revenue points directly at price and the persistent underperformance against quota and budget targets that has plagued Nigeria’s oil sector throughout the post-pandemic era.
The numbers expose a structural problem Nigeria has not resolved. The country’s 2025 budget assumed production of 766.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate combined. Actual combined output was 599.64 million barrels, a shortfall of 166.86 million barrels. Nigeria fell below its OPEC production quota in nine of twelve months, meeting or exceeding targets only in January, June and July. Operational disruptions, pipeline outages, and theft continued to limit the country’s ability to maximise oil revenues even as oil prices provided partial support.
The headline crude oil figure is only part of the story, and the more interesting part is what sits beneath it. Nigeria’s total exports of crude oil, gas and refined petroleum products rose from $45.51 billion in 2024 to $48.17 billion in 2025. Gas export earnings increased 21.4 percent to $10.51 billion. Refined petroleum exports came in at $6.13 billion, a category that barely existed in prior years. The CBN explicitly linked the emergence of refined exports to the Dangote Refinery. Fuel imports also fell, from $14.06 billion in 2024 to $10.00 billion in 2025, a $4 billion reduction directly attributable to improved domestic refining capacity.
The external sector pressures are growing faster than the structural gains. Non-oil imports rose 13.6 percent to $29.24 billion. Net outflows in the services account widened to $14.58 billion. The sharpest deterioration was in the primary income account, where net outflows surged 60.9 percent to $9.09 billion from dividend and interest payments to foreign investors. The current account surplus narrowed from $19.03 billion in 2024 to $14.04 billion in 2025. The overall balance of payments surplus fell from $6.83 billion to $4.23 billion. External reserves nonetheless rose to $45.75 billion, providing a buffer against further external shocks.
Bigger Picture: The 2025 numbers document where Nigeria was before the Iran war changed the calculus entirely. With crude prices now above $100 per barrel and Nigerian production trending upward, the 2026 BOP report is likely to show a dramatically different picture. The structural shift that matters most for Nigeria’s long-term trajectory is not the crude price windfall but the Dangote effect: gas exports above $10 billion, refined product exports above $6 billion, and fuel import bills falling by $4 billion in a single year. Those three lines together represent a fundamental change in how Nigeria monetises its hydrocarbon endowment.
Source: Nairametrics
